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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

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gaining in relative terms. (See Table 1.) But with the information now available, it is not possible to determine when production and consumption of fertilizer will reach an economic equilibrium.
Modernization. Turning next to a brief overview of farm-food supply developments, the modernization picture is made up of several parts. It is doubtful that agriculture in China is undergoing much modernization, although the evidence is sparse. In the planned economies of eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, the facade of agriculture is being modernized, but
Increases in the Utilization of Fertilizer in the World between 1955-56 and 1965-66
			Compound Growth
		Developing	Rates in Fertilizer
	World Total	Countries	Utilization in
	(in Million	(as Percent	Developing
	Metric Tons)	of World)	Countries
			1955-56     1961-62
			to               to
	1955-56     1965-66	1955-56      1965-66	1965-66     1965-66
Nitrogen TV	7.1            19.2	17              19	11.6            12.8
Pentoxide P O	8               14.9	9              12	9.7            10.7
Oxide K^O	6.8            12.2	5               10	13              17.8
Total	21.9           46.3	10.6           14.6	11.3            13
Source:  (52, Table 2, p. 22).
agriculture continues to perform far below par because of economic inefficiency. The Latin American scene is mixed. Many parts of agriculture continue to stagnate because the economic opportunities to increase production by using modern agricultural inputs are concealed for reasons of economic policy.* The prospects for agriculture in these parts of Latin America remain dim. But the exceptions are noteworthy. Mexico is in the vanguard; agricultural output increased at a rate of 4.6 percent per year from 1940 to 1965 (18). There are some favorable signs in the pampas of Argentina, in regions of Brazil, and in parts of agriculture in some other countries.
Turning to south Asia, it is undoubtedly true that the modernization thrust is fairly strong (29, 35, 44, 53, 54). Important parts of agriculture in India, Pakistan, and Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines are
*For an extended examination of the Latin American scene, see (1, Part 3, 9.1; 55).f additional wheat (52).t, from advances in industrial technical knowledge. Since the end of the 1930's there have been two series of price declines. The first occurred before 1964-65 and the other since then. The following data show that in the United States fertilizer prices declined by one half relative to farm products prices during the decade from 1939-40 to 1950. (If one were to use the consumer price index, the relative decline would be very much the same.)